World PA6 & PA66 Supply / Demand Report (Yellow Book)
In the twenty years since the first edition of this annual report was issued, it has become the reference standard for the global polyamide industry. In the 2011 edition PCI shows that almost all the demand reduction experienced in 2008 / 2009 has now been reversed, and very little permanent loss has been recorded (with the exception of staple fibre in North America). However, not all in the garden is rosy. Much of this recovery is a result of developments in China, where expanding domestic demand and robust exports have transformed the country into the pivotal region for polyamide. To put this in context, China now represents 30% of global PA demand (38% of PA6 and 15% of PA66), up from just 8% in 2000. Never before in the history of polyamide has the industry been so dependent on one country / region for its success. And never has it been less clear whether China’s remarkable progress can be sustained.
Alongside this regional analysis, another key factor in formulating the 2011 Yellowbook scenario is our forward view of the relative price positioning of polyamide in relation to competing materials, particularly the polyester family (e.g. PET, PBT and PTT). Events of the last 12 months have clearly shown that it is not the absolute price of polyamide which determines demand, but rather what it costs versus its competitors. PCI believes that it is not primarily the tightness of the relevant supply / demand balances within polyamide which are making current prices possible, but rather price increases in other products - notably cotton and polyester - which have raised the price ceiling for many polyamide-based products. Given that the prices for many of these competing materials are expected to fall from H2 2011 onwards, there is a risk that the strongest members of the polyamide chain (the intermediates producers) overplay their hand and attempt to maintain current margins at a time when their raw material costs are increasing, but the prices of competing products are in decline.
Taking these and other factors into account, we have methodically developed our scenario for the global PA industry. This shows an overall volume growth rate of +2.4% CAGR through to 2020. The detail of this scenario and how it affects all areas of the polyamide chain is laid out in the new 2011 PCI Nylon Yellowbook.
The report segments the polyamide market into six macro end-use sectors:
- Textile Filament
- Industrial Filament
- Carpet Filament
- Staple Fibres
- Engineering Plastics
- Film
PA consumption, divided into these 6 sectors, is provided for 66 separate countries, including full mass balances for the related polymer and intermediates requirements. Separate mass balances for PA6 and PA66 are included. The Yellowbook also contains capacity tables for fibres, polymers and intermediates, at the plant-by-plant level.
The report is presented in multi-formats for easy use, including hard copy book, pdf and Excel. All numerical data is provided in Excel Pivot format to enable clients to quickly search, select, compile and aggregate any data which is of interest for further analysis and interrogation.
If you are interested in this product please contact us. You may also download the Supply and Demand Report Flyer.